Our Meridian Blog

Just a reminder that the 18th Annual Meridian Lions Club happens this Saturday and Sunday, September 29th and 3oth.  Events begin with mutton busting and steer riding at 1pm, with the regular rodeo events beginning at 2pm.  The rodeo grounds are west of town on Cherry, past Black Cat.

This year’s rodeo is an Idaho Cowboy Association sanctioned event, and it is the last regular event on their schedule before their finals.  It will be the last chance for points so we’re expecting some great cowboys and some great action.

Tickets are available at the rodeo grounds on the event days, and they are available during the week at D & B Supply.  The Lions will also be taking donations for the Meridian Food Bank this year, so toss a couple non-perishable food items in the car before you come out. 

See you this weekend!

Paramount will have its Fall Harvest Carnival this coming Friday.  The event will take place at the Paramount Elementary School, from 5pm until 8pm.  Events include a raffle, silent auction of scarecrows, food, and a number of games and booths.

I’ll bet you can already tell that my take on the market is going to be different from the Statesman’s.  Today won’t surprise you then.  On their online edition, the headline is “Idaho foreclosures double in the past year”, and the article contains these awful stats

The number of foreclosures in Idaho have more than doubled in the last year, according to report issued today.
RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif.-based outfit that tracks state-by-state foreclosure rates nationwide, reports that the 543 foreclosures recorded in Idaho in August were 125.3 percent higher than for the same month a year ago.

It sounds like the whole world is caving in and people are losing their homes all over the state. But reading further, you find that maybe the presentation of the stats is what is really awful. Close reading shows that the 543 number “represented one filing for each 1,097 homes in Idaho”. You’re kidding me, right? Give or take a few, that means that out of 595,671 homes in Idaho, only 543 went to foreclosure. Perspective is the key.

How does Idaho stack up to the rest of the Nation?

Nationwide, RealtyTrac reported a total of 243,947 foreclosure in August, up 36 percent from the previous month and a 115 percent increase from August 2006.
The national foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 510 households for the month was also the highest national U.S. figure ever issued in the report.

Idaho’s foreclosure rate is less than half of the national average. Wouldn’t that have made a nice headline? What do you think?

On the heels of my post from yesterday, the Idaho Statesman had a very misleading headline in today’s paper.  Did you see it?  “Ada Home Prices Up, Canyon Down” is what they printed.  How embarrassing, I thought.  Did they really say that?

..According to Intermountain Multiple Listing Service data released Tuesday, the median price of a home in Ada County last month was $235,000, up 7 percent since the beginning of the year. But in Canyon County, the median stood at $160,000, down $10,000 — or 6 percent — since January.

Experts were at a loss to explain how prices in Ada County can be rising at a time when sales are in a swoon.

Some experts.  Perhaps they need to go back to school and learn what “median price” really means, and what it measures.  Because home prices are NOT going up in Ada county.  Let’s try to see what’s happening here.

As I mentioned in my last post, there were 656 single family homes sold in Ada County in August, with a median price of $236,500.  37 of those homes sold for more than $500K, and 5 of those were over $900K.  That is pretty good in the high range homes in this market.  Compare that to January of this year when there were 501 sales.  The median price of those sales was $220,000.  only 19 of those were over $500K, and only one of those was over $900K.

Now, what is it that “median” measures?  Simply put, the median price does NOT measure home prices, it is simply that middle number where half sold for more and half sold for less.  So, when the median price is higher in August, it means that we cleared out some high end inventory (most likely by taking big price reductions from the original list price), not that everyone’s price went up.  The only way to say that home prices went up would be to show that comparable homes in the same neighborhood are selling for higher prices now than they were in January and February, and that is simply not the case for most of the Treasure Valley.

If you would like to see how your own neighborhood values have fared over the last six or seven months, feel free to email me, or call.  I’ll be happy to look that up for you.

Ada County Real Estate Sales

The problem in the mortgage market in the early part of August is reflected in the latest sales figures for Ada County Real Estate.  As you might remember, at the beginning of the month a couple of large lenders abruptly closed their doors, leaving many borrowers stranded without funding.  Not all of those deals were saved, apparently.  Sales of Single Family Homes (not counting acreage, townhomes, mobiles, or condos) at 656 units were a bit below July’s weak 667 number, continuing the trend we’ve watched since April.  This makes March our high month of the year, which is very unusual.

Another sign that the mortgage problems affected our market is in the “Pending” number, which right now stands at only 557.  This is the lowest number I’ve seen all year, and in March it was running well over 800.  It indicates that we’re getting fewer homes under contract now so the closed figures for the rest of the year will continue to decline.  Some of that is seasonal of course, but after the high hopes of the spring, many sellers are feeling let down in this market.

There are still too many homes on the market, with 4764 active listings in Ada this morning.  That is down slightly from  over 4850 a week or so ago.  Our market would look a lot better if the folks who are not serious about selling would take their signs down.  There are still too many homes priced well over what the market is paying right now.  Buyers have a lot of great real estate to choose from now, so there is no reason to be holding on to last summer’s expectations.

Meridian Real Estate Sales

Meridian numbers are roughly following the Ada County real estate sales units.  Today there are 1501 single family houses on the market in Meridian.  There are 160 contracts pending.  And in August, there were 183 sales closed.  That compares to 295 last August.  Again, I think the tightening of the mortgage market has much to do with it.  The very easy money is gone, and many of the folks who might have squeeked by qualifying a year or so ago will no longer find loans available to them.  I’ve talked to a couple property managers lately who have mentioned to me that their vacancy rate is very low.  A home I sold in the area, which closed in the middle of August, had tenants moving in before the month was over.  Two summers ago, there were rental signs everywhere it seemed.

So far, September is continuing the trend.  I noticed an article in the Statesman a few weeks ago made mention of the weak August numbers, but the opinion of the interviewee was that September would rebound and finish higher.  That would be wonderful, but it had better ‘bound’ soon.  Ada solds so far in September are only 135 (195 lsat year).  For Meridian, I find 33 solds, compared to 62 last year.  I find it interesting that as a whole, Ada county seems to getting roughly 97% of list price, while Meridian listings are getting 94%.  I try not to make too much of those median and average numbers though, since they aren’t really comparing identical items.  Interesting to note though.

For buyers, this is a great market.  There is plenty of possibilities to choose from, in all price ranges, and new construction homes with plenty of upgrades are available at prices that seem very reasonable to me.  For sellers, all I can suggest is that you pay attention to your agent, and to the statistics and figures he has for you.  Get your property in shape before you list it, price it right, be willing to listen to real buyers and negotiate any offers.  Homes are selling.  Concentrate on your goal, not on the last possible dollar.  I’ve seen offers refused in this market that were 97% of asking price.  Are they really for sale?  They could be moved by now, which was the goal, wasn’t it?  Trust your agent, not your friends and realtives.