Our Meridian Blog

At our recent Hunter Pointe HOA Annual Meeting, I was asked about how the neighborhood is holding up in this current real estate market.  A number of people have mentioned they don’t feel that homes are selling.  Others said it felt to them that there were a lot of homes for sale right now… “is our neighborhood alright?” and “the newspaper makes it sound so horrible, should we be worried?”

I did a little digging into the numbers this past week and learned a few things about Hunter Pointe that ought to reassure the homeowners there.  And it makes the point that I have been saying for months.  The real estate market is not uniformly awful here in the Treasure Valley, or in Meridian.  In fact, there are neighborhoods that are pretty good and which have hardly noticed a downturn at all.  Hunter Pointe is one of those.

First of all, there are only 5 Hunter Pointe homes for sale through the MLS right now.  That seems to be about the number I’d call normal for this past summer, although we had a few extra “For Sale By Owners” earlier this year.  There are plenty of homes for sale in all of the neighborhoods around Hunter Pointe, but this neighborhood has stayed pretty steady most of the year.  There are currently no pending sales that I can find on the MLS.  Through 2007 there have been 10 homes sold, an average of one per month.  That compares to 26 homes in all of 2006 (just more than 2 per month) and 24 in the last 7 months of 2005 (just over 3 per month as an average).  So, of the 290 homes in Hunter Pointe, 60 have changed owners in the last 32 months. 

Everyone wants to know about price though.  How has the neighborhood faired over the last year or two?  I think you’ll be surprised.  For the six months of May through October in 2005, there were 20 sales.  Prices ranged between $154,900 and $197,600, with an average price of $178,424.  By square foot price, so we can compare, that is an average of $104 per foot.  Homes in Hunter Pointe are nice, don’t vary too greatly in size or condition, so for this neighborhood, square foot prices are educational.  Yes, the smaller single levels will tend to have a little higher square foot price than the bigger two story homes.  Foundations, roofing, plumbing, and electrical are the biggest costs in a home.  “Lifting the roof and slipping in another level” spreads those costs over more square feet in a two story (remember that as we go along).

So, where did sales and prices go from there?  Well, For the next six month period, through April 2006, there were 15 homes sold.  This period saw the most range in price, size, and condition, with prices ranging from $169,000 all the way to $269,900, with the average price being $204,541.  Square foot prices were all over the board too, from $99 to $132, with $119 per foot being average.  Hot markets do that.

The next six months, through November of 2006, had 12 sales, again ranging widely between $178,500 to $279,900 (the highest price I can find in this neighborhood).  Square foot prices tightened up a bit, ranging from $116 to $138.  Average price in the neighborhood was $218,380, partly because more of the larger homes sold during this period.  This period was after the market had topped over and was slowing down.

November 2006 through April 2007 showed an average of one sale per month, although three sales went in December and two months had none at all.  Average home price in that time was down slightly, to $213,200, but only one of the larger homes sold.  Looking at square foot prices, home values were still rising.  Surprised?  It’s true.  Average price per square foot in Hunter Pointe between November 2006 end of April 2007 was $131 per foot.  A bit misleading, because the foot price for the bigger homes in the neighborhood is often going to be lower than the price for the smaller homes.

In the last six months, through the beginning of this November, there have been six homes sold.  Here again, we see the difference between the smaller homes and the larger homes affecting the “averages”.  Average sales price was $219,983, which is up a bit from the last period.  Average square foot price dropped a touch, to $129.  Confusing?  Only a little.  But when you break the numbers out and look at what is actually happening in the market, you see that it hasn’t been a disaster after all. 

Not all neighborhoods have faired as well as Hunter Pointe.  And neighborhoods with new construction, or with homes that are only a year or two old have taken a much larger hit than the numbers for this neighborhood might suggest.  But I have said all summer long, and will say it again, existing homes that are well kept, well presented, and priced correctly are still selling, and prices in many neighborhoods, like Hunter Pointe, have remained firm.  Don’t let the newspapers get you down!

Ada County Real Estate Sales

October home sales in Ada County rebounded slightly from the barely 400 units in September.  There were a total of 455 Single Family homes closed during the month.  For the year to date, 6059 homes have been sold in the county, as reported to the MLS.  If you consider Fall of 2005 as the rough top of the run up, then on a yearly basis unit sales are off almost 38% compared to 2005’s 9746, 31% compared to 2006’s 8783.  Quite a correction, but a needed one.  No market can stay healthy if the kind of excess we saw in late 2005 continues too long.  Ask the folks in California, Arizona, and Nevada.  The speculation and over heating in their markets was well beyond what we had here in the Treasure Valley.
Another sign of better conditions in our market is the continuing decline in inventory we are seeing, including in the new construction market.  Currently there are 4449 active single family homes listed on the MLS.   Compare that to the peak early this summer of more than 5100 residences for sale.  Pending sales show 486 units waiting to close, which is down a bit from last month, but not unexpected.  We’ve  had a bit more customer traffic in the last couple weeks, buyers from out of town asking questions, questions from people about pricing their homes, calls about lots, and questions about builders.  Coming into the holiday season, I expect more inventory to come off the market, and no real increase in sales. It is encouraging to see people out and about again, and I believe September was a mortgage market hiccup rather than a sign of further weakening.

Meridian Sales

Sales of homes in Meridian show the same improvement that the county numbers show.  There are currently 1360 active single Family homes listed in the MLS in Meridian, compared to 1449 at the beginning of October.  And there were 134 sold during the month, with 148 are currently pending.  That suggests a 10 month supply of homes at this pace, which is much better than last month’s numbers would have indicated.  We normally consider 6 months to be a “balanced” market. 

The Meridian area has also seen a slight increase in interest from buyers and sellers this past month.  I’ve seen continued land prep in some of the subdivisions, and I know of builders who are planning to begin new builds in the next few weeks.  I appreciate that the newspapers, and radio and television news, want to report on real estate like they do the stock market.  That is a very misleading approach, because the factors that drive the stock market up and down are not necessarily factors that influence the real estate market. 

Real estate is driven by the needs of people.  Marriages create new families.  Babies happen, kids grow bigger.  Job changes happen, dreams change.  Towns grow bigger, business moves in or grows, opportunities are created.  Kids move away and start their own lives, and mom and dad can sell the “old home” and pursue new dreams.  The dynamics behind the real estate market are people dynamics first, not money dynamics.  It’s good to remember that.

Here are a few things coming up in Meridian that you might find interesting:

Don’t forget to VOTE!  Next Tuesday, November 6th.

The Meridian Wreath Festival is an annual event, happening in a new location this year.  Tuesday, November 13th, from 11am until 3pm at the Marriott Courtyard at Eagle Road and Overland, there will be lots of wreaths and other decorations available to purchase, and the sales benefit The St. Luke’s Childrens’ Miracle Network and the Meridian Kiwanis Youth Foundation.

Rake Up Meridian happens Saturday November 17th.  Contact the Kiwanis or the Boys and Girls Club for more information on how you can get involved in the service part of this event.

You thought I was going to remind you about something else, didn’t you?