Is That Headline True?
Perhaps you read the paper this morning, or have heard the news on the radio, that Ada County home sales ROSE in September by 14%. “What’s up with that?” you say, and you wonder if it means the worst is over.
Yes, it’s true that we sold more homes this September than we did in 2007, and yes, it’s true that this is the first month over month increase we’ve had in a couple of years. But what does it mean? I notice that the paper and the radio didn’t try to give us any more information, so what they did give us isn’t enough to make any decisions on.
I’d like to give you a bit more information. In August of 2007 we had the first hard stumble in the mortgage market. Over night, a couple of large mortgage money sources went under. A number of sales contracts throughout the United States, and yes, even here in Ada County, fell out and many of them were not put back together. It even happened to me. I had helped a wonderful young couple to sell their home and make an offer on a bigger one for their growing family. Two contracts tied together, due to close in mid-August. We got both deals signed and waiting for funding. The buyer’s lender for the first home was unable to fund the sale because the money source had failed. Mad scramble to get both deals extended, and the buyer scrambled to find a replacement program. We were blessed and successful. But many deals fell last year and were not able to be put back together, deals that should have closed in September, making last September an unusally poor sales month.
What do you think? Are you ready to call the bottom based on the 14% increase the paper is reporting? I’m not. I’d like to see a few more months of better sales before I say we’ve turned the corner. There are a couple of markets in the country right now that are seeing increasing sales, and perhaps the Meridian, Boise, Ada County maarkets are next. But let’s wait and see a few more data points, shall we?
By the way, I should have a better look at the September sales figures posted here early next week. See you then.
bill | General Information, Real Estate Market
